Estimating countries preparedness and vulnerability for the COVID-19 pandemic : Elaboration and approbation of overall index

Université d’État de Gestion – Russie
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Abstract: Due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and its social-economic conse­quences, the estimation role of preparedness and vulnerability has risen significantly. This paper complements existing investigations in the field of international comparisons and multidimensional rankings, presenting the results of a complex evaluation of the national level of preparedness and vulnerability in terms of pandemics based on the multidimen­sional index proposed by the authors. The main objective of the proposed research was to estimate the national level of preparedness and vulnerability for the pandemic from a complex point of view. An overall multidimensional index was calculated and used for complying countries’ ranking based on the elaborated methodology. The proposed index allowed the authors to conclude that there is a significant difference in the overall level of preparedness for a pandemic and disproportion between certain system elements for each country. Analysis of existing databases, open sources, and reports highlighted the necessity to extend the existing list of indicators to evaluate the level of vulnerability. The expedi­ency of using the proposed index is proved by the statistical correlation analysis between subindexes and the level of morbidity and mortality due to the COVID-19. The proposed overall index is used for multidimensional grouping and cluster analysis to estimate the economic consequences of the pandemic. The results of the cluster analysis allowed creating four groups of the countries, namely: (1) highly vulnerable countries with a low level of preparedness ; (2) countries with a low level of preparedness and vulnerability ; (3) coun­tries with a high level of preparedness and vulnerability ; (4) countries with a low level of vulnerability and a high level of preparedness. The comparative analysis of economical outcomes (such as annual change of GDP in 2020–2019 to average annual GDP change for 2019–2017), unemployment rate change, and inflation change presented in the research highlighted disproportions of the pandemic influence by country’s groups.

Keywords : pandemic preparedness, vulnerability, pandemic resistance, countries rating, multidimensional index.

JEL classification : C1, F0, I0.